German mathematician Joachim Klement has predicted that the Netherlands will win the 2026 World Cup.
Klement correctly picked the previous three tournament winners — his native Germany in Brazil in 2014, France in Russia in 2018 and Argentina in Qatar four years ago.
Klement says he initially set out to demonstrate that predicting the winner was practically impossible and admitted to Der Spiegel that the first time he used the model in 2014 and got it right, he was shocked.
“The first time I was horrified when Germany became world champions in Brazil, also because all the experts had pointed out that no European team had ever won a World Cup in South America,” he said.
Klement’s model takes into account a number of key variables, such as each country’s GDP per capita — as this affects sports infrastructure — population size, the status of football in society, the national team’s position in the world rankings, and an element of chance that Klement is keen to emphasise.
Using his own model, he tips the Netherlands to beat Spain in the semifinal before upsetting Portugal in the title game.
According to Klement, Portugal will see off England in the other semifinal.
While Klement has been accurate in the past, he warns others not to take his predictions seriously.
“It’s completely irrational,” he said. “It’s like playing the lottery. I always say that if anyone places a bet based on my prediction of who will be the next world champion, they’re beyond help.
“It’s like tossing a coin. You might predict that the coin will land on heads four times in a row rather than tails, and that might well happen. But that doesn’t guarantee it will happen again next time.”
The Netherlands have reached a record three World Cup finals but have never won the tournament.
Ronald Koeman‘s side begins the World Cup against Japan on June 14.
They also face Sweden and Tunisia in Group F.
2026 World Cup
Group F
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Netherlands |
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Japan |
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Sweden |
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Tunisia |
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